Abstracts and Selected Posters/Papers from 2109 - AP010 - Transit Management and Performance Papers

Papers evaluate various aspects of Transit from staffing challenges to the impacts of service availability and accessibility on ridership, transfer and congestion modeling to construction costs and key trends in transit today.

Full Details about the Poster Session can be found on the TRB Annual Meeting Event Page. 

Accessibility Derivative: Measuring the Contribution of Public Transit Routes to System-Wide Accessibility

Poster B540

Authors: Luyu Liu, University of Florida; Harvey Miller, Ohio State University

Accessibility is one of the most essential functions of public transit systems as the transit service’s useability and service quality. The accessibility of transit systems as a whole is well understood; however, it is still unclear how each route contributes to the general accessibility. Meanwhile, with a higher risk of disruptions and more uncertainties from climate change and pandemics, there is an urgent need to systematically study the impacts of service change with the contribution of each route to general accessibility. To address this gap, we introduce the accessibility derivative: a measure of the contribution of each route in a transit system. We define the derivative of a route as the systemwide change in accessibility after removing the route from the system. We demonstrate how to calculate the derivative numerically from widely available public transit schedule and automated passenger count data.  The measure reflects the inner structure of a transit system and reveals the impacts of potential route-level service changes. The results provide firsthand evidence on public transit assessment and planning, including performance assessment, schedule redesign, and planning transfers.

Reducing U.S. Transit Costs: An Empirical Review and Comparative Case Study of the Portland, Manchester, Rail Systems

Poster B541

Authors: Chaitanya Sharma, VHB; Joseph Chow, New York University

The cost to build and operate mass transit in the United States is consistently higher than it is elsewhere in the developed world. This study seeks to understand why through a review of existing cost data and a comparative case study analysis. Two light rail systems, MAX (in Portland, Oregon) and Metrolink (in Manchester, UK), share many design and operations characteristics but have divergent operations & capital costs. Despite this, Portland’s MAX system operates more efficiently than the average US transit system. This similarity in specifications, combined with a divergence in cost, provides an opportunity to understand why US transit is comparatively expensive. This study develops a set of hypotheses for high US transit costs based on prior literature, published data, and a comparison of these two systems. After evaluating these hypotheses against the two systems, the study recommends that US transit agencies embrace modern rolling stock design, contract operations and maintenance to private franchisees, prioritize transit speed, raise additional fare revenue to prioritize proactive maintenance, avoid ambiguities in jurisdictional authority, embrace economies of scale, standardize design requirements, and avoid overdesign.

Analyzing the Transfer Duration of Public Transport Passengers Using Classification and Regression Tree-Multiple-Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Poster B542

Authors: Pengfei Han, Tian Lei, Lei Gong, Qihua Zhan, Cheng Zhu, Shenzhen Technology University

Transfer behavior is a critical factor influencing the travel efficiency of public transportation passengers. To address the potential heterogeneity in existing transfer studies, the present work developed an integrated Classification and Regression Tree-Multiple-Cox Proportional Hazards (CART-Multi-Cox) model to analyze the transfer duration of public transport passengers using information fused from multi-source datasets. Specifically, passengers are first grouped into different types based on transfer behavior features using the CART model. Then, the influence of various independent variables on different types of passengers' transfer duration is examined using the Cox model. The results revealed that ridership at transfer stations and passengers' transfer frequency have the most significant influence on transfer duration. Furthermore, by considering passengers' heterogeneity, this study proposes targeted measures to enhance the transfer experience for vulnerable groups and commuters based on the factors influencing different passenger types. It also points out that the number of bus routes has little impact on passengers' transfer duration, emphasizing the importance of optimizing metro-to-bus coordination. Moreover, the model presented in this paper can identify passengers with non-pure transfer behaviors, providing a more comprehensive reference for transfer behavior management, considering to the specific needs of different passenger groups. The findings of this study could offer a valuable reference for understanding passengers' transfer behavior and reducing their transfer duration, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of public transportation.

Transit Industry Leaders on the Future of Transit

Poster B543

Authors: Kari Watkins, University of California, Davis; Bianca Mers, Michael Hunter, Georgia Institute of Technology

Transit is at a pivotal moment. Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, transit ridership had been declining across the United States for several years. Although the pandemic decimated ridership, it also emphasized the essential role of transit and transit riders, underscoring the need for equity considerations. Simultaneously, advances in transit innovations ranging from new types of vehicles, to fare policy changes, to new public-private partnerships have the potential to fundamentally alter the types and delivery of transit services. Each of these factors individually, much less occurring concurrently, would be enough to warrant a methodical interrogation into the future of transit. For this research task, the authors conducted semi-structured interviews with 22 transit thought leaders with a wide range of expertise. During the interview, interviewees were asked to share their perspectives on the current and future state of the transit industry and how certain social and technological factors may affect that future. The interviews were then analyzed using the Nvivo software for themes of interest. The coded quotes were then exported and synthesized into a series of thematic memos, five of which are presented here, including COVID-19, fare technology, micromobility, on-demand services, and public-private relationships. Given the challenges and rapidly changing environment of the transit landscape, informed perspectives of the broader vision for transit are essential to guide policies and practice.

Extraboard Transit Operator Planning and Scheduling Under Uncertainty

Poster B551

Authors: Jilin Song , Amer Shalaby, Merve Bodur, University of Toronto

Transit operator shortage and absenteeism are pressing issues in the field of public transit. In public transit operations, driver absence leaves scheduled work open, which can be detrimental to the system reliability. Public transit agencies keep a roster of extraboard operators to fill in open work. Extraboard operators make up a large proportion of the operator workforce, especially at large agencies. In the current state of practice, planning and scheduling decisions regarding these operators are largely done based on past experience (e.g., use a pre-established absence rate). Extraboard scheduling has also received less attention in the literature compared to regular operator scheduling. In particular, not much attention has been paid to the daily report time scheduling problem at the operational level. In this study, A two-stage stochastic program is proposed to determine the optimal report times for extraboard operators who are designated to cover unexpected absences. The stochastic model is solved using sample average approximation (SAA). The sample of random scenarios is drawn from simulated outcomes of individual operator absence based on historical absence rates. The two-stage stochastic program is shown to perform better than a heuristic approach proposed in the literature. The proposed model can also serve to give recommendations regarding extraboard sizing requirements. To fulfill a certain reliability requirement, more extraboard operators are needed than what a pre-established absence rate suggests, especially at higher average absence rates.nsit operators in managing ridership fluctuations under pandemic conditions.

Shifts in Public Perception About Returning to Transit: A Qualitative Analysis of Longitudinal Survey Data Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

Poster B544

Authors: Sameer Aryal, Christopher Cherry, Mojdeh Azad, Candace Brakewood, University of Tennessee, Knoxville; John MacArthur, Portland State University

This paper presents a longitudinal survey analysis that investigates the dynamic perceptions of individuals regarding the resumption of transit services amidst the challenging COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed responses to an open-ended question regarding users' thoughts on returning to transit during COVID-19. The data was collected through a smartphone app over six survey waves nationwide. Eight distinct themes emerged from the analysis, initially coded using text analysis software, and subsequently, they were manually verified and updated. These themes encompassed critical factors such as reopening physical locations, cleanliness and sanitization, mask requirements, vaccination requirements, social distancing, availability of more services, number of active COVID-19 cases, and feeling safe to ride. Using a panel regression model, we further investigated the relationship between these themes and the socio-demographic data of the users, providing an understanding of the factors influencing individuals' attitudes towards returning to transit. By exploring these multifaceted dimensions and incorporating statistical analysis, this study illuminates the evolving attitudes, concerns, and priorities of the public over time. It provides evidence of the socio-demographic factors that shape these perceptions. The insights from this analysis will benefit policymakers and transit authorities with the knowledge to develop targeted strategies and interventions that effectively address public sentiment and facilitate the safe and efficient return to transit services during infectious disease outbreaks.

Transit in America: Taking A Closer Look at Transit Access Effectiveness in Metropolitan Areas

Poster B550

Authors: Alireza Ermagun, George Mason University; Frank Witlox, Ghent University

This study examines transit effectiveness through the lens of employment access. The approach deployed in this analysis uses the gradual shift of mobility to access to introduce the Transit-Walk Access Gap (TWAG) as an effectiveness indicator in the 50 most populated American Metropolitan Areas. Our findings reveal three conclusions. First, it is not recommended that transit access effectiveness be measured in isolation of spatiotemporal dimensions of the transit service. Second, transit access effectiveness is Central Business District (CBD) centric in most American metropolitan areas as correlation analysis declares that transit access effectiveness declines from a surfeit of effectiveness to relative scarcity as one moves out from the center. Third, transit access effectiveness positively impacts transit ridership and magnitude of impact is a function of the metropolitan area and the travel-time threshold, with Memphis as the most elastic and New York as the least elastic metropolitan area. Based on the findings, our study offers the following insights: (i) transit service is slightly effective in short travel times, but a gradual improvement in transit access effectiveness is noticed by increased travel-time thresholds, (ii) the spatial coverage of effective transit rises with an increase in travel time, and (iii) the nature of the relationship does not appear to be linear.  It is realized that the correlation becomes more substantial with an increase in the travel-time threshold.

A Novel Fuzzy Cross-Efficiency Evaluation in Data Envelopment Analysis: A Case Study of State Road Transport Undertakings in India

Poster B552

Authors: Swati Goya, Shivi Agarwal, Trilok Mathur, Birla Institute of Technology and Science

Cross-efficiency evaluation, a commonly used tool in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), is applied to assess the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) through self- and peer-evaluation methods. This method is highly effective in ranking among DMUs. Conventionally, the secondary goal method is employed to set the necessary weights for fuzzy cross-efficiency evaluation. This study introduces an innovative technique that eliminates the requirement of weight selection and overcomes the limitations of negative cross-efficiency often found in variable returns to scale (VRS) situations, where existing fuzzy cross-evaluation methods are confined to constant returns to scale (CRS). The fuzzy DEA model is resolved using the credibility measure approach, considering different credibility levels. The efficacy of the proposed model is exemplified by the ranking of 37 State Road Transport Undertakings (STUs) in India during the 2017–2018 financial year.